V-Lab
PMV Adaptive Risk Parity ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
7.16%
increased by 0.19%
1 Week
7.32%
increased by 0.35%
1 Month
7.94%
increased by 0.97%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 2022 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 195 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~195 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0054 | 1.68* |
| αARCH | 0.1207 | 3.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8757 | 27.81*** |
| γleverage | -0.0267 | -0.28 |
0.996
Persistence195d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0054 | 1.68* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1207 | 3.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8757 | 27.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0267 | -0.28 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
195 days
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