V-Lab
PMV Adaptive Risk Parity ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
9.63%
increased by 0.73%
1 Week
10.00%
increased by 1.10%
1 Month
11.15%
increased by 2.25%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6002 | 4.26*** |
| αARCH | 0.1284 | 3.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8454 | 17.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1018 | -2.83*** |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6002 | 4.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1284 | 3.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8454 | 17.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1018 | -2.83*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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