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V-Lab
V-Lab

PMV Adaptive Risk Parity ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

9.63%

increased by 0.73%

1 Week

10.00%

increased by 1.10%

1 Month

11.15%

increased by 2.25%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of PMV Adaptive Risk Parity ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6002
4.26***
αARCH0.1284
3.28***
βGARCH0.8454
17.03***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1018
-2.83***

0.974

Persistence

26d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6002
4.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1284
3.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8454
17.03***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1018
-2.83***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days