V-Lab
PMV Adaptive Risk Parity ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
8.52%
increased by 0.84%
1 Week
8.64%
increased by 0.96%
1 Month
9.11%
increased by 1.43%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 256 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~256 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0050 | 1.57 |
| αARCH | 0.1266 | 1.30 |
| βGARCH | 0.8816 | 25.08*** |
| γleverage | -0.0216 | -0.17 |
0.997
Persistence256d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0050 | 1.57 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1266 | 1.30 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8816 | 25.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0216 | -0.17 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
256 days
Other PMV Adaptive Risk Parity ETF Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on ETFs