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PMV Adaptive Risk Parity ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

8.52%

increased by 0.84%

1 Week

8.64%

increased by 0.96%

1 Month

9.11%

increased by 1.43%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of PMV Adaptive Risk Parity ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 256 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~256 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0050
1.57
αARCH0.1266
1.30
βGARCH0.8816
25.08***
γleverage-0.0216
-0.17

0.997

Persistence

256d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0050
1.57
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1266
1.30
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8816
25.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0216
-0.17

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

256 days