V-Lab
PMV Adaptive Risk Parity ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
9.56%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
9.67%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
10.09%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 435 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0048 | 6.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1268 | 5.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8845 | 102.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0258 | -0.82 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
435 days
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