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PMV Adaptive Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

9.87%

increased by 0.06%

1 Week

9.88%

increased by 0.07%

1 Month

9.91%

increased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of PMV Adaptive Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4167
4.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0985
20.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9868
342.77***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.7206
5.42***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days