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PMV Adaptive Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

8.66%

increased by 0.98%

1 Week

8.70%

increased by 1.02%

1 Month

8.85%

increased by 1.17%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of PMV Adaptive Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 51-day half-lifev = 5.80 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4052
1.07
αARCH0.0982
5.08***
βGARCH0.9864
80.35***
νDF5.7974
1.29

0.986

Persistence

51d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4052
1.07
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0982
5.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9864
80.35***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.7974
1.29

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

51 days