V-Lab
Direxion Daily Googl Bear 1x Shares Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
40.72%
1 Week
40.48%
1 Month
39.58%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 8, 2022 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 88% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.74 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0598 | 5.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0514 | 12.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9350 | 238.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1800 | -5.49*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7356 | 10.59*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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