Grayscale Bitcoin Miners ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
74.35%
increased by 4.09%
1 Week
73.97%
increased by 3.71%
1 Month
72.82%
increased by 2.56%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 36.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 19.5121 | 17.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0368 | 2.29** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9505 | 70.25*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 36.0439 | 0.07 |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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