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V-Lab

Grayscale Bitcoin Miners ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

74.35%

increased by 4.09%

1 Week

73.97%

increased by 3.71%

1 Month

72.82%

increased by 2.56%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Grayscale Bitcoin Miners ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 30, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 36.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

19.5121
17.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0368
2.29**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9505
70.25***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

36.0439
0.07

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days