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V-Lab

Global X S&P 500 Christin VL GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

12.95%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

13.14%

increased by 0.14%

1 Month

13.38%

increased by 0.38%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Global X S&P 500 Christin VL GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 24, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7242
6.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0366
0.88
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7986
6.25***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.1707
0.11

Persistence:

0.799

Half-life:

3 days