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V-Lab

Russell 2000 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

31.68%

decreased by 2.25%

1 Week

30.73%

decreased by 3.20%

1 Month

27.98%

decreased by 5.95%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 01:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 2000 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0208
2.42**
βGARCH0.8460
77.16***
γleverage0.1516
10.92***
λ₁tau intercept0.0011
1.62
λ₂forecast adj.0.0135
5.02***
λ₃tau persistence0.9859
341.26***

0.943

Persistence

12d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0208
2.42**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8460
77.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1516
10.92***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0011
1.62
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0135
5.02***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9859
341.26***

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days