V-Lab
Russell 2000 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
17.50%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
17.84%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
18.66%
increased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0201 | 2.33** |
| βGARCH | 0.8450 | 76.45*** |
| γleverage | 0.1533 | 10.96*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0012 | 1.67* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0142 | 5.14*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9851 | 330.57*** |
0.942
Persistence12d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0201 | 2.33** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8450 | 76.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1533 | 10.96*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0012 | 1.67* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0142 | 5.14*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9851 | 330.57*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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