V-Lab
Russell 2000 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
17.11%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
17.56%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
18.77%
increased by 1.03%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0201 | 8.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8449 | 284.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1537 | 43.00*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0011 | 6.00*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0140 | 13.43*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9853 | 885.26*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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