Skip to main content
V-Lab

Russell 2000 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

17.48%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

17.96%

increased by 0.30%

1 Month

19.22%

increased by 1.56%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 2000 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0202
8.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8450
284.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1535
42.95***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0011
5.95***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0139
13.45***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9854
894.21***

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days