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V-Lab

Russell 2000 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

16.27%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Week

17.04%

increased by 0.36%

1 Month

18.89%

increased by 2.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Russell 2000 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0200
8.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8450
284.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1536
42.96***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0011
5.88***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0139
13.47***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9855
898.34***

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days