Russell 2000 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
16.27%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
17.04%
increased by 0.36%
1 Month
18.89%
increased by 2.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0200 | 8.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8450 | 284.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1536 | 42.96*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0011 | 5.88*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0139 | 13.47*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9855 | 898.34*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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