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V-Lab

Russell 2000 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

15.55%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

15.81%

increased by 0.24%

1 Month

16.70%

increased by 1.13%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 2000 Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.51) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0061
1.42
αARCH0.0993
13.62***
βGARCH0.8842
119.94***
γleverage0.5118
10.59***

0.984

Persistence

42d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0061
1.42
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0993
13.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8842
119.94***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5118
10.59***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days