Russell 2000 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
14.71%
increased by 0.66%
1 Week
15.02%
increased by 0.97%
1 Month
16.06%
increased by 2.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.51) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0061 | 5.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0997 | 54.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8838 | 478.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5125 | 42.33*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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