Russell 2000 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
19.53%
increased by 1.76%
1 Week
19.62%
increased by 1.85%
1 Month
19.94%
increased by 2.17%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.51) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0061 | 1.42 |
| αARCH | 0.0992 | 13.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8844 | 120.09*** |
| γleverage | 0.5113 | 10.61*** |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0061 | 1.42 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0992 | 13.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8844 | 120.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5113 | 10.61*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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