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V-Lab

Russell 2000 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

19.53%

increased by 1.76%

1 Week

19.62%

increased by 1.85%

1 Month

19.94%

increased by 2.17%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 2000 Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.51) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0061
1.42
αARCH0.0992
13.62***
βGARCH0.8844
120.09***
γleverage0.5113
10.61***

0.984

Persistence

42d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0061
1.42
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0992
13.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8844
120.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5113
10.61***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days