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V-Lab

Russell 2000 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

14.71%

increased by 0.66%

1 Week

15.02%

increased by 0.97%

1 Month

16.06%

increased by 2.01%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Russell 2000 Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.51) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0061
5.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0997
54.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8838
478.79***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5125
42.33***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days