V-Lab
EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
11.24%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
11.88%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
13.81%
increased by 1.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.72) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0885 | 34.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8819 | 367.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7157 | 28.60*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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