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FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

24.08%

increased by 3.99%

1 Week

24.08%

increased by 3.99%

1 Month

24.09%

increased by 4.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.69) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
0.00
αARCH0.0996
8.91***
βGARCH0.8799
87.86***
γleverage0.6904
6.11***

0.979

Persistence

33d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0996
8.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8799
87.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6904
6.11***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days