FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
24.08%
increased by 3.99%
1 Week
24.08%
increased by 3.99%
1 Month
24.09%
increased by 4.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.69) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0996 | 8.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8799 | 87.86*** |
| γleverage | 0.6904 | 6.11*** |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0996 | 8.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8799 | 87.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6904 | 6.11*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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