V-Lab
FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
18.98%
increased by 3.59%
1 Week
19.16%
increased by 3.77%
1 Month
19.83%
increased by 4.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0279 | 5.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.1027 | 9.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8874 | 89.30*** |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0279 | 5.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1027 | 9.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8874 | 89.30*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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