V-Lab
FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
15.81%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
16.10%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Month
17.14%
increased by 0.73%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0281 | 23.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1036 | 36.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8868 | 353.44*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
Other GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices