V-Lab
NASDAQ 100 GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
16.54%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
16.77%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
17.63%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0268 | 5.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.0902 | 12.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8997 | 121.45*** |
0.990
Persistence68d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0268 | 5.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0902 | 12.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8997 | 121.45*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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