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V-Lab
V-Lab

NASDAQ 100 Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

16.84%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Week

17.31%

increased by 0.08%

1 Month

18.90%

increased by 1.67%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NASDAQ 100 SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 44 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9334
7.48***
αARCH0.0919
11.66***
βGARCH0.8924
107.54***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0036
-2.14**
γ20.0083
2.57**

0.984

Persistence

44d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9334
7.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0919
11.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8924
107.54***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0036
-2.14**
γ20.0083
2.57**

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days