NASDAQ 100 Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
16.84%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
17.31%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
18.90%
increased by 1.67%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 44 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9334 | 7.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.0919 | 11.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8924 | 107.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0036 | -2.14** |
| γ2 | 0.0083 | 2.57** |
0.984
Persistence44d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9334 | 7.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0919 | 11.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8924 | 107.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0036 | -2.14** |
| γ2 | 0.0083 | 2.57** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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