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NASDAQ 100 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

19.21%

increased by 2.96%

1 Week

19.33%

increased by 3.08%

1 Month

19.78%

increased by 3.53%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NASDAQ 100 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 94 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~94 daysv = 9.35 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.7225
1.59
αARCH0.0790
9.91***
βGARCH0.9926
187.22***
νDF9.3487
1.43

0.993

Persistence

94d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7225
1.59
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0790
9.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9926
187.22***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.3487
1.43

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

94 days