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NASDAQ 100 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026

1 Day

24.97%

increased by 0.02%

1 Week

24.99%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

25.07%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 01:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/02/2024

to

11/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NASDAQ 100 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 94 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.37 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~94 daysv = 9.37 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.7533
1.58
αscore0.0795
9.94***
βpersistence0.9926
187.50***
νDF9.3675
1.44

0.993

Persistence

94d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.7533
1.58
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0795
9.94***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9926
187.50***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.3675
1.44

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

94 days