V-Lab
S&P 100 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
13.57%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
13.68%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Month
14.10%
decreased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4767 | 5.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0856 | 41.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9917 | 580.28*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.8441 | 8.35*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
83 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices