OMX Stockholm 30 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
14.59%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
14.78%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Month
15.47%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 04:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8734 | 8.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0763 | 34.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9891 | 759.08*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.8136 | 5.41*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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