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V-Lab

OMX Stockholm 30 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

18.50%

increased by 2.89%

1 Week

18.58%

increased by 2.97%

1 Month

18.85%

increased by 3.24%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 04:14 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of OMX Stockholm 30 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 63-day half-lifev = 8.85 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.8588
2.16**
αscore0.0764
8.70***
βpersistence0.9890
191.27***
νDF8.8470
1.35

0.989

Persistence

63d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.8588
2.16**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0764
8.70***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9890
191.27***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.8470
1.35

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

63 days