V-Lab
OMX Stockholm 30 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
11.64%
increased by 0.54%
1 Week
11.95%
increased by 0.85%
1 Month
13.02%
increased by 1.92%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8630 | 8.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0765 | 34.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9891 | 757.37*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.7875 | 5.45*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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