V-Lab
OMX Stockholm 30 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
16.07%
increased by 0.39%
1 Week
16.21%
increased by 0.53%
1 Month
16.72%
increased by 1.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 04:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 63-day half-lifev = 8.84 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8604 | 2.16** |
| αARCH | 0.0765 | 8.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9891 | 190.79*** |
| νDF | 8.8383 | 1.35 |
0.989
Persistence63d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8604 | 2.16** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0765 | 8.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9891 | 190.79*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.8383 | 1.35 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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