OMX Stockholm 30 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
18.50%
increased by 2.89%
1 Week
18.58%
increased by 2.97%
1 Month
18.85%
increased by 3.24%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 04:14 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 63-day half-lifev = 8.85 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.8588 | 2.16** |
| αscore | 0.0764 | 8.70*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9890 | 191.27*** |
| νDF | 8.8470 | 1.35 |
0.989
Persistence63d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.8588 | 2.16** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0764 | 8.70*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9890 | 191.27*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.8470 | 1.35 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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