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OMX Stockholm 30 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

13.18%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Week

13.42%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Month

14.27%

increased by 0.63%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 04:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of OMX Stockholm 30 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 63-day half-lifev = 8.79 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.8603
2.13**
αARCH0.0764
8.71***
βGARCH0.9891
189.52***
νDF8.7929
1.36

0.989

Persistence

63d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8603
2.13**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0764
8.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9891
189.52***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.7929
1.36

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

63 days