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V-Lab

OMX Stockholm 30 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

16.07%

increased by 0.39%

1 Week

16.21%

increased by 0.53%

1 Month

16.72%

increased by 1.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 04:07 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of OMX Stockholm 30 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 63-day half-lifev = 8.84 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.8604
2.16**
αARCH0.0765
8.70***
βGARCH0.9891
190.79***
νDF8.8383
1.35

0.989

Persistence

63d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8604
2.16**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0765
8.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9891
190.79***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.8383
1.35

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

63 days