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V-Lab

S&P/TSX Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026

1 Day

14.63%

increased by 0.20%

1 Week

14.63%

increased by 0.20%

1 Month

14.62%

increased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/13/2024

to

10/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-lifev = 8.65 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8451
1.93*
αARCH0.0903
8.88***
βGARCH0.9885
161.10***
νDF8.6524
1.42

0.989

Persistence

60d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8451
1.93*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0903
8.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9885
161.10***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.6524
1.42

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

60 days