S&P/TSX Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
14.63%
increased by 0.20%
1 Week
14.63%
increased by 0.20%
1 Month
14.62%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-lifev = 8.65 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8451 | 1.93* |
| αARCH | 0.0903 | 8.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9885 | 161.10*** |
| νDF | 8.6524 | 1.42 |
0.989
Persistence60d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8451 | 1.93* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0903 | 8.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9885 | 161.10*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.6524 | 1.42 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
Other S&P/TSX Composite Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices