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V-Lab

S&P/TSX Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

9.84%

increased by 0.36%

1 Week

9.97%

increased by 0.49%

1 Month

10.45%

increased by 0.97%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8394
7.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0904
35.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9884
639.77***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.6198
5.71***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

60 days