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V-Lab

S&P/TSX Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

8.35%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

8.55%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

9.22%

increased by 0.54%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8401
7.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0906
35.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9885
638.13***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.5941
5.74***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

60 days