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V-Lab

S&P/TSX Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

8.69%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Week

8.87%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Month

9.49%

increased by 0.43%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8424
7.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0904
35.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9885
641.48***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.6052
5.73***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

60 days