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S&P/TSX Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

18.42%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Week

18.35%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Month

18.06%

decreased by 1.10%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-lifev = 8.71 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.8539
1.92*
αscore0.0909
8.87***
βpersistence0.9886
161.53***
νDF8.7075
1.42

0.989

Persistence

60d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.8539
1.92*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0909
8.87***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9886
161.53***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.7075
1.42

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

60 days