V-Lab
S&P/TSX Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
14.42%
increased by 0.39%
1 Week
14.42%
increased by 0.39%
1 Month
14.43%
increased by 0.40%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8429 | 7.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0904 | 35.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9885 | 642.30*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.6256 | 5.71*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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