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V-Lab

S&P/TSX Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

13.04%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Week

13.08%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Month

13.22%

decreased by 0.69%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-lifev = 8.65 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8444
1.93*
αARCH0.0907
8.88***
βGARCH0.9885
160.51***
νDF8.6507
1.42

0.988

Persistence

60d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8444
1.93*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0907
8.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9885
160.51***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.6507
1.42

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

60 days