S&P/TSX Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
18.42%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
18.35%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Month
18.06%
decreased by 1.10%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-lifev = 8.71 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.8539 | 1.92* |
| αscore | 0.0909 | 8.87*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9886 | 161.53*** |
| νDF | 8.7075 | 1.42 |
0.989
Persistence60d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.8539 | 1.92* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0909 | 8.87*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9886 | 161.53*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.7075 | 1.42 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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