Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P/TSX Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

14.42%

increased by 0.39%

1 Week

14.42%

increased by 0.39%

1 Month

14.43%

increased by 0.40%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8429
7.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0904
35.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9885
642.30***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.6256
5.71***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

60 days