V-Lab
S&P/TSX Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
13.04%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
13.08%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Month
13.22%
decreased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-lifev = 8.65 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8444 | 1.93* |
| αARCH | 0.0907 | 8.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9885 | 160.51*** |
| νDF | 8.6507 | 1.42 |
0.988
Persistence60d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8444 | 1.93* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0907 | 8.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9885 | 160.51*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.6507 | 1.42 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
60 days
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