V-Lab
S&P BSE SENSEX Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
10.20%
1 Week
10.51%
1 Month
11.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 12:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 153 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.1995 | 1.79* |
| αARCH | 0.0744 | 14.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9955 | 449.03*** |
| νDF | 6.5268 | 3.49*** |
0.995
Persistence153d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1995 | 1.79* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0744 | 14.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9955 | 449.03*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5268 | 3.49*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
153 days
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