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S&P BSE SENSEX Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

12.47%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

12.70%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

13.57%

increased by 0.83%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC

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graph of S&P BSE SENSEX Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 151 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~151 daysv = 6.53 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.1788
1.79*
αARCH0.0743
14.59***
βGARCH0.9954
443.20***
νDF6.5274
3.47***

0.995

Persistence

151d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.1788
1.79*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0743
14.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9954
443.20***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5274
3.47***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

151 days