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V-Lab

S&P BSE SENSEX Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

18.87%

increased by 2.20%

1 Week

18.98%

increased by 2.31%

1 Month

19.39%

increased by 2.72%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P BSE SENSEX Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 149 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~149 daysv = 6.54 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.1774
1.79*
αARCH0.0746
14.50***
βGARCH0.9954
438.10***
νDF6.5442
3.44***

0.995

Persistence

149d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.1774
1.79*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0746
14.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9954
438.10***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5442
3.44***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

149 days