V-Lab
S&P BSE SENSEX Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
12.47%
1 Week
12.70%
1 Month
13.57%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 151 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.1788 | 1.79* |
| αARCH | 0.0743 | 14.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9954 | 443.20*** |
| νDF | 6.5274 | 3.47*** |
0.995
Persistence151d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1788 | 1.79* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0743 | 14.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9954 | 443.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5274 | 3.47*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
151 days
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