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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P BSE SENSEX Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

10.20%

increased by 0.05%

1 Week

10.51%

increased by 0.36%

1 Month

11.62%

increased by 1.47%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 12:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P BSE SENSEX Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 153 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~153 daysv = 6.53 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.1995
1.79*
αARCH0.0744
14.67***
βGARCH0.9955
449.03***
νDF6.5268
3.49***

0.995

Persistence

153d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.1995
1.79*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0744
14.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9955
449.03***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5268
3.49***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

153 days