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V-Lab

S&P BSE SENSEX Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

13.45%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

13.66%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Month

14.45%

increased by 0.65%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 12:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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graph of S&P BSE SENSEX Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 148 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.51 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.1657
7.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0742
57.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9953
1,727.99***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5143
13.79***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

148 days