V-Lab
S&P BSE SENSEX Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
13.45%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
13.66%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
14.45%
increased by 0.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 12:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 148 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.51 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1657 | 7.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0742 | 57.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9953 | 1,727.99*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5143 | 13.79*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
148 days
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