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S&P BSE SENSEX Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 16th, 2026

1 Day

17.13%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Week

17.33%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Month

18.13%

increased by 0.42%

Analysis last updated: Friday, November 13, 2026 at 12:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/13/2024

to

11/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P BSE SENSEX Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 13, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72963 trading days (~289.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~72963 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0140
4.22***
αARCH0.0655
4.83***
βGARCH0.9104
109.92***
γleverage0.0482
1.96*

1.000

Persistence

72963d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0140
4.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0655
4.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9104
109.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0482
1.96*

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

72963 days