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S&P BSE SENSEX Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

17.38%

increased by 1.59%

1 Week

17.58%

increased by 1.79%

1 Month

18.36%

increased by 2.57%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P BSE SENSEX Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 43321 trading days (~171.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 74% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~43321 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 74% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0139
4.21***
αARCH0.0653
4.80***
βGARCH0.9105
109.96***
γleverage0.0483
1.96**

1.000

Persistence

43321d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0139
4.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0653
4.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9105
109.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0483
1.96**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

43321 days