S&P BSE SENSEX Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 16th, 2026
1 Day
17.13%
1 Week
17.33%
1 Month
18.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 13, 2026 at 12:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 13, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72963 trading days (~289.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0140 | 4.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.0655 | 4.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9104 | 109.92*** |
| γleverage | 0.0482 | 1.96* |
1.000
Persistence72963d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0140 | 4.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0655 | 4.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9104 | 109.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0482 | 1.96* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
72963 days
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