V-Lab
S&P BSE SENSEX Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.62%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
11.92%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
13.06%
increased by 1.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 3960 trading days (~15.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 74% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0141 | 16.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0651 | 19.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9106 | 438.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0482 | 7.78*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3960 days
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