S&P BSE SENSEX Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
17.38%
1 Week
17.58%
1 Month
18.36%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 43321 trading days (~171.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 74% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0139 | 4.21*** |
| αARCH | 0.0653 | 4.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9105 | 109.96*** |
| γleverage | 0.0483 | 1.96** |
1.000
Persistence43321d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0139 | 4.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0653 | 4.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9105 | 109.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0483 | 1.96** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
43321 days
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