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S&P BSE SENSEX Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

13.42%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Week

13.68%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

14.67%

increased by 0.86%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC

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graph of S&P BSE SENSEX Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 60273 trading days (~239.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~60273 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0139
4.20***
αARCH0.0653
4.80***
βGARCH0.9106
110.00***
γleverage0.0482
1.96*

1.000

Persistence

60273d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0139
4.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0653
4.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9106
110.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0482
1.96*

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

60273 days