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V-Lab

S&P/TSX 60 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026

1 Day

13.85%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

13.89%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

14.02%

increased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 09:17 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX 60 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 372% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 372% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0137
5.84***
αARCH0.0292
3.32***
βGARCH0.9012
113.37***
γleverage0.1087
5.62***

0.985

Persistence

45d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0137
5.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0292
3.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9012
113.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1087
5.62***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days