S&P/TSX 60 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
8.74%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
8.99%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
9.85%
increased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 370% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0137 | 23.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0294 | 13.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9010 | 452.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1087 | 22.39*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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