V-Lab
S&P/TSX 60 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
12.93%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
13.00%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Month
13.25%
decreased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 373% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 373% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0137 | 5.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.0293 | 3.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9008 | 113.07*** |
| γleverage | 0.1093 | 5.63*** |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0137 | 5.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0293 | 3.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9008 | 113.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1093 | 5.63*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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