S&P/TSX 60 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
13.85%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
13.89%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
14.02%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 09:17 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 372% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 372% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0137 | 5.84*** |
| αARCH | 0.0292 | 3.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9012 | 113.37*** |
| γleverage | 0.1087 | 5.62*** |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0137 | 5.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0292 | 3.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9012 | 113.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1087 | 5.62*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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