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V-Lab

Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

14.42%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

14.70%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

15.68%

increased by 1.04%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 49% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0234
18.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0544
15.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9231
379.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0267
4.76***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

75 days