V-Lab
Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
14.42%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
14.70%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
15.68%
increased by 1.04%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 49% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0234 | 18.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0544 | 15.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9231 | 379.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0267 | 4.76*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
75 days
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