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V-Lab

Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

14.66%

increased by 0.38%

1 Week

14.92%

increased by 0.64%

1 Month

15.87%

increased by 1.59%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 05:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~75 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0233
4.73***
αARCH0.0543
3.88***
βGARCH0.9232
95.03***
γleverage0.0267
1.19

0.991

Persistence

75d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0233
4.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0543
3.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9232
95.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0267
1.19

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

75 days