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Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

15.39%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Week

15.63%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Month

16.49%

increased by 0.67%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 05:44 PM UTC

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graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1991 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~76 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0233
4.74***
αARCH0.0542
3.87***
βGARCH0.9233
95.06***
γleverage0.0267
1.19

0.991

Persistence

76d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0233
4.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0542
3.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9233
95.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0267
1.19

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

76 days