Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
16.76%
increased by 0.88%
1 Week
16.95%
increased by 1.07%
1 Month
17.66%
increased by 1.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 05:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1991 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~75 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0233 | 4.76*** |
| αARCH | 0.0541 | 3.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9234 | 95.17*** |
| γleverage | 0.0267 | 1.19 |
0.991
Persistence75d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0233 | 4.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0541 | 3.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9234 | 95.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0267 | 1.19 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
75 days
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