V-Lab
Tadawul All Share TASI Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Saturday, August 15th, 2026
1 Day
10.77%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
11.63%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
14.39%
increased by 3.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 1998 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 141% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0433 | 27.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1081 | 21.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8054 | 240.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1526 | 15.93*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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