Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Tadawul All Share TASI Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Saturday, September 19th, 2026

1 Day

12.33%

decreased by 0.90%

1 Week

13.05%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Month

15.45%

increased by 2.22%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 1998 to Sep 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 140% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 140% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0433
6.89***
αARCH0.1077
5.47***
βGARCH0.8061
60.38***
γleverage0.1508
3.96***

0.989

Persistence

64d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0433
6.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1077
5.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8061
60.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1508
3.96***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

64 days