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V-Lab

Tadawul All Share TASI Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Saturday, August 15th, 2026

1 Day

10.77%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

11.63%

increased by 0.34%

1 Month

14.39%

increased by 3.10%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 1998 to Aug 13, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 141% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0433
27.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1081
21.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8054
240.49***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1526
15.93***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days