Tadawul All Share TASI Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Saturday, October 10th, 2026
1 Day
12.79%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
13.48%
increased by 0.33%
1 Month
15.77%
increased by 2.62%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 06:13 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 1998 to Oct 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 139% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 139% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0432 | 6.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.1077 | 5.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8063 | 60.44*** |
| γleverage | 0.1502 | 3.95*** |
0.989
Persistence63d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0432 | 6.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1077 | 5.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8063 | 60.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1502 | 3.95*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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