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Tadawul All Share TASI Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Saturday, October 10th, 2026

1 Day

12.79%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Week

13.48%

increased by 0.33%

1 Month

15.77%

increased by 2.62%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 06:13 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 1998 to Oct 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 139% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 139% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0432
6.89***
αARCH0.1077
5.47***
βGARCH0.8063
60.44***
γleverage0.1502
3.95***

0.989

Persistence

63d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0432
6.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1077
5.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8063
60.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1502
3.95***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

63 days