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V-Lab
V-Lab

Tadawul All Share TASI Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Saturday, September 5th, 2026

1 Day

11.90%

decreased by 0.79%

1 Week

12.66%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

15.17%

increased by 2.48%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 05:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 1998 to Sep 3, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 141% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 141% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0434
6.90***
αARCH0.1078
5.47***
βGARCH0.8057
60.23***
γleverage0.1520
3.98***

0.990

Persistence

66d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0434
6.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1078
5.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8057
60.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1520
3.98***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days