V-Lab
Tadawul All Share TASI Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Saturday, September 19th, 2026
1 Day
12.33%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Week
13.05%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
15.45%
increased by 2.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 1998 to Sep 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 140% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 140% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0433 | 6.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.1077 | 5.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8061 | 60.38*** |
| γleverage | 0.1508 | 3.96*** |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0433 | 6.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1077 | 5.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8061 | 60.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1508 | 3.96*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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