Skip to main content
V-Lab

Tadawul All Share TASI Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Saturday, July 25th, 2026

1 Day

9.59%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Week

10.57%

increased by 0.66%

1 Month

13.60%

increased by 3.69%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 05:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 1998 to Jul 23, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 140% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0431
27.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1082
21.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8060
241.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1511
15.80***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days