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Tadawul All Share TASI Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Saturday, October 31st, 2026

1 Day

29.53%

decreased by 3.08%

1 Week

29.58%

decreased by 3.03%

1 Month

29.80%

decreased by 2.81%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 1998 to Oct 28, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 141% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 141% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0433
6.90***
αARCH0.1078
5.48***
βGARCH0.8059
60.51***
γleverage0.1515
3.98***

0.989

Persistence

66d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0433
6.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1078
5.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8059
60.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1515
3.98***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

66 days