Tadawul All Share TASI Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Saturday, October 31st, 2026
1 Day
29.53%
decreased by 3.08%
1 Week
29.58%
decreased by 3.03%
1 Month
29.80%
decreased by 2.81%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 1998 to Oct 28, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 141% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 141% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0433 | 6.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.1078 | 5.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8059 | 60.51*** |
| γleverage | 0.1515 | 3.98*** |
0.989
Persistence66d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0433 | 6.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1078 | 5.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8059 | 60.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1515 | 3.98*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
66 days
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