V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
92.59%
increased by 4.82%
1 Week
92.35%
increased by 4.58%
1 Month
91.40%
increased by 3.63%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 224 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 123% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0160 | 17.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0474 | 21.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9203 | 588.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0584 | 13.37*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
224 days
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