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Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

41.95%

decreased by 1.57%

1 Week

41.90%

decreased by 1.62%

1 Month

41.71%

decreased by 1.81%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 08:55 PM UTC

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graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 193 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 124% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~193 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 124% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0170
4.44***
αARCH0.0483
5.40***
βGARCH0.9182
145.68***
γleverage0.0598
3.37***

0.996

Persistence

193d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0170
4.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0483
5.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9182
145.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0598
3.37***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

193 days