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V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

92.59%

increased by 4.82%

1 Week

92.35%

increased by 4.58%

1 Month

91.40%

increased by 3.63%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 224 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 123% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0160
17.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0474
21.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9203
588.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0584
13.37***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

224 days