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V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

62.58%

decreased by 2.63%

1 Week

62.45%

decreased by 2.76%

1 Month

61.93%

decreased by 3.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 218 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 125% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~218 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 125% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0162
4.29***
αARCH0.0472
5.34***
βGARCH0.9201
146.87***
γleverage0.0589
3.37***

0.997

Persistence

218d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0162
4.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0472
5.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9201
146.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0589
3.37***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

218 days