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Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026

1 Day

17.83%

increased by 4.30%

1 Week

18.23%

increased by 4.70%

1 Month

19.55%

increased by 6.02%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/04/2024

to

11/04/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 71% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 71% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0576
5.71***
αARCH0.1091
6.03***
βGARCH0.8295
55.70***
γleverage0.0779
2.54**

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0576
5.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1091
6.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8295
55.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0779
2.54**

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days