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Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

14.59%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Week

15.23%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

17.26%

increased by 1.96%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 06:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 72% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 72% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0578
5.72***
αARCH0.1091
6.02***
βGARCH0.8293
55.60***
γleverage0.0783
2.55**

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0578
5.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1091
6.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8293
55.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0783
2.55**

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days