V-Lab
Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
22.39%
decreased by 1.76%
1 Week
22.54%
decreased by 1.61%
1 Month
23.04%
decreased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 02:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 72% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0576 | 22.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1087 | 24.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8301 | 224.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0780 | 10.16*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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