Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026
1 Day
17.83%
increased by 4.30%
1 Week
18.23%
increased by 4.70%
1 Month
19.55%
increased by 6.02%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 71% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 71% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0576 | 5.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.1091 | 6.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8295 | 55.70*** |
| γleverage | 0.0779 | 2.54** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0576 | 5.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1091 | 6.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8295 | 55.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0779 | 2.54** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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