Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
19.89%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Week
20.17%
decreased by 1.03%
1 Month
21.10%
decreased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 71% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0576 | 22.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1091 | 24.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8299 | 223.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0772 | 10.02*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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