Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
14.59%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
15.23%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
17.26%
increased by 1.96%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 06:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 72% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 72% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0578 | 5.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.1091 | 6.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8293 | 55.60*** |
| γleverage | 0.0783 | 2.55** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0578 | 5.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1091 | 6.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8293 | 55.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0783 | 2.55** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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