V-Lab
Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
17.58%
increased by 4.58%
1 Week
18.00%
increased by 5.00%
1 Month
19.38%
increased by 6.38%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 72% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 72% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0577 | 5.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.1092 | 6.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8293 | 55.56*** |
| γleverage | 0.0783 | 2.55** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0577 | 5.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1092 | 6.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8293 | 55.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0783 | 2.55** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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