V-Lab
MSCI USA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
11.10%
increased by 0.36%
1 Week
11.33%
increased by 0.59%
1 Month
12.12%
increased by 1.38%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0195 | 5.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.0017 | 0.19 |
| βGARCH | 0.9052 | 108.32*** |
| γleverage | 0.1499 | 7.43*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0195 | 5.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0017 | 0.19 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9052 | 108.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1499 | 7.43*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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