MSCI USA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
13.72%
increased by 1.96%
1 Week
13.82%
increased by 2.06%
1 Month
14.19%
increased by 2.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0194 | 5.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.0015 | 0.17 |
| βGARCH | 0.9054 | 108.47*** |
| γleverage | 0.1497 | 7.47*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0194 | 5.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0015 | 0.17 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9054 | 108.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1497 | 7.47*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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