V-Lab
MSCI USA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
12.04%
increased by 1.00%
1 Week
12.22%
increased by 1.18%
1 Month
12.85%
increased by 1.81%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0194 | 20.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0017 | 0.77 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9056 | 433.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1492 | 29.63*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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