V-Lab
MSCI USA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
10.45%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
10.72%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
11.63%
increased by 0.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0195 | 5.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.0016 | 0.18 |
| βGARCH | 0.9052 | 108.33*** |
| γleverage | 0.1499 | 7.45*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0195 | 5.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0016 | 0.18 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9052 | 108.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1499 | 7.45*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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