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MSCI USA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

10.45%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

10.72%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

11.63%

increased by 0.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI USA GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0195
5.03***
αARCH0.0016
0.18
βGARCH0.9052
108.33***
γleverage0.1499
7.45***

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0195
5.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0016
0.18
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9052
108.33***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1499
7.45***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days