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V-Lab

MSCI USA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

12.07%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Week

12.25%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Month

12.88%

increased by 0.42%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI USA GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0194
20.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0017
0.77
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9056
433.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1492
29.63***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days