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MSCI USA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

10.97%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Week

11.13%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

11.73%

increased by 0.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI USA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~81 daysv = 6.18 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.3284
1.25
αscore0.0795
10.42***
βpersistence0.9914
136.30***
νDF6.1830
2.18**

0.991

Persistence

81d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.3284
1.25
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0795
10.42***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9914
136.30***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.1830
2.18**

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

81 days