MSCI USA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
12.65%
increased by 0.41%
1 Week
12.77%
increased by 0.53%
1 Month
13.20%
increased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3488 | 4.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0796 | 41.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9916 | 546.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1471 | 8.81*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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