Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

MSCI USA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

12.25%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

12.38%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Month

12.85%

decreased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:01 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

09/24/2024

to

09/24/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI USA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~81 daysv = 6.17 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3328
1.25
αARCH0.0795
10.42***
βGARCH0.9914
136.15***
νDF6.1745
2.18**

0.991

Persistence

81d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3328
1.25
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0795
10.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9914
136.15***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.1745
2.18**

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

81 days