MSCI USA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
18.73%
1 Week
18.72%
1 Month
18.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 5, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.3639 | 1.39 |
| αscore | 0.0860 | 10.10*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9910 | 140.96*** |
| νDF | 7.0577 | 1.87* |
0.991
Persistence76d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.3639 | 1.39 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0860 | 10.10*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9910 | 140.96*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.0577 | 1.87* |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
76 days
Other MSCI USA Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices