V-Lab
MSCI USA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
12.25%
1 Week
12.38%
1 Month
12.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3328 | 1.25 |
| αARCH | 0.0795 | 10.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9914 | 136.15*** |
| νDF | 6.1745 | 2.18** |
0.991
Persistence81d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3328 | 1.25 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0795 | 10.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9914 | 136.15*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1745 | 2.18** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
81 days
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