MSCI USA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
10.97%
1 Week
11.13%
1 Month
11.73%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.3284 | 1.25 |
| αscore | 0.0795 | 10.42*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9914 | 136.30*** |
| νDF | 6.1830 | 2.18** |
0.991
Persistence81d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.3284 | 1.25 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0795 | 10.42*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9914 | 136.30*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1830 | 2.18** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
81 days
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