MSCI USA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
12.93%
increased by 0.17%
1 Week
13.25%
increased by 0.49%
1 Month
14.24%
increased by 1.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3237 | 7.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0953 | 10.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8746 | 78.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0803 | 6.13*** |
| γ2 | -0.1281 | -6.03*** |
| γ3 | 0.0745 | 4.85*** |
| γ4 | -0.0469 | -3.49*** |
| γ5 | 0.0415 | 2.73*** |
| γ6 | -0.0307 | -2.62*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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