Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Dow Jones South Africa Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026

1 Day

25.71%

increased by 7.83%

1 Week

25.51%

increased by 7.63%

1 Month

24.76%

increased by 6.88%

Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

11/05/2024

to

11/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones South Africa Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1992 to Nov 5, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8868
9.58***
αARCH0.0866
9.31***
βGARCH0.8936
81.16***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0002
-1.84*

0.980

Persistence

35d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8868
9.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0866
9.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8936
81.16***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0002
-1.84*

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

35 days