V-Lab
Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
38.29%
increased by 19.43%
1 Week
37.41%
increased by 18.55%
1 Month
34.37%
increased by 15.51%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:13 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.5934 | 5.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.0821 | 8.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8857 | 75.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0348 | 5.36*** |
| γ2 | -0.0370 | -4.18*** |
| γ3 | 0.0019 | 0.39 |
| γ4 | 0.0028 | 0.92 |
0.968
Persistence21d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.5934 | 5.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0821 | 8.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8857 | 75.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0348 | 5.36*** |
| γ2 | -0.0370 | -4.18*** |
| γ3 | 0.0019 | 0.39 |
| γ4 | 0.0028 | 0.92 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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