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V-Lab

Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

18.22%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Week

18.33%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Month

18.65%

decreased by 0.34%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.6050
5.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0823
8.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8856
75.40***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0351
5.36***
γ2-0.0373
-4.17***
γ30.0018
0.38
γ40.0029
0.95

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

21 days