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V-Lab

Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

22.64%

decreased by 1.02%

1 Week

22.49%

decreased by 1.17%

1 Month

22.00%

decreased by 1.66%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.5948
5.95***
αARCH0.0842
7.88***
βGARCH0.8823
71.31***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0348
5.42***
γ2-0.0372
-4.25***
γ30.0025
0.52
γ40.0021
0.67

0.967

Persistence

20d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.5948
5.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0842
7.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8823
71.31***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0348
5.42***
γ2-0.0372
-4.25***
γ30.0025
0.52
γ40.0021
0.67

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

20 days