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Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

30.70%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Week

30.72%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Month

30.79%

decreased by 0.59%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 176 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 113% more than positive returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~176 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 113% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0350
2.02**
αARCH0.0389
1.56
βGARCH0.9311
162.27***
γleverage0.1257
3.53***
δpower3.0000
2.75***

0.996

Persistence

176d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0350
2.02**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0389
1.56
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9311
162.27***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1257
3.53***
δ

power

Transformation power

3.0000
2.75***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

176 days