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V-Lab

Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

17.63%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

17.86%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

18.72%

increased by 0.81%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 203 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 119% more than positive returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0326
8.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0389
6.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9313
640.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1298
14.64***
δ

power

Transformation power

3.0000
10.97***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

203 days