Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
20.27%
decreased by 1.45%
1 Week
20.78%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Month
22.50%
increased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 1993 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 65% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 65% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0654 | 6.59*** |
| αARCH | 0.1500 | 8.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7870 | 63.32*** |
| γleverage | 0.0967 | 3.57*** |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0654 | 6.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1500 | 8.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7870 | 63.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0967 | 3.57*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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