V-Lab
Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
20.29%
increased by 2.70%
1 Week
20.77%
increased by 3.18%
1 Month
22.43%
increased by 4.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 68% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0625 | 26.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1450 | 37.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7914 | 275.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0993 | 14.79*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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