V-Lab
Russell Midcap Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
11.63%
increased by 0.10%
1 Week
12.01%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
13.18%
increased by 1.65%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2004 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 161% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 161% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0326 | 7.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.1150 | 4.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7654 | 46.78*** |
| γleverage | 0.1846 | 4.89*** |
0.973
Persistence25d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0326 | 7.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1150 | 4.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7654 | 46.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1846 | 4.89*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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