CAC 40 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
12.45%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
12.88%
increased by 0.18%
1 Month
14.24%
increased by 1.54%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 145% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 145% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0393 | 7.98*** |
| αARCH | 0.1034 | 8.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7941 | 82.90*** |
| γleverage | 0.1497 | 6.44*** |
0.972
Persistence25d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0393 | 7.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1034 | 8.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7941 | 82.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1497 | 6.44*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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