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Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

15.70%

decreased by 0.97%

1 Week

16.00%

decreased by 0.67%

1 Month

17.11%

increased by 0.44%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 08:30 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 8, 2005 to Sep 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~98 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0260
5.20***
αARCH0.1331
6.10***
βGARCH0.8373
61.88***
γleverage0.0450
1.42

0.993

Persistence

98d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0260
5.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1331
6.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8373
61.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0450
1.42

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

98 days