Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
30.46%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
30.48%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
30.53%
decreased by 0.61%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 08:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2005 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 106 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 34% more than positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0257 | 20.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1332 | 24.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8379 | 246.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0449 | 5.68*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
106 days
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