V-Lab
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
15.70%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Week
16.00%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Month
17.11%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 08:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2005 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~98 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0260 | 5.20*** |
| αARCH | 0.1331 | 6.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8373 | 61.88*** |
| γleverage | 0.0450 | 1.42 |
0.993
Persistence98d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0260 | 5.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1331 | 6.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8373 | 61.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0450 | 1.42 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
98 days
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