V-Lab
S&P Composite 1500 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
12.26%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
12.55%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
13.46%
increased by 1.29%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 28, 2004 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 212% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0300 | 29.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1060 | 13.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7554 | 150.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2247 | 20.50*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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