S&P Composite 1500 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
13.84%
increased by 3.96%
1 Week
14.01%
increased by 4.13%
1 Month
14.57%
increased by 4.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 28, 2004 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 211% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 211% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0299 | 7.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.1060 | 3.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7556 | 37.66*** |
| γleverage | 0.2235 | 5.12*** |
0.973
Persistence26d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0299 | 7.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1060 | 3.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7556 | 37.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2235 | 5.12*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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