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S&P Composite 1500 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

10.63%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Week

11.04%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

12.31%

increased by 0.94%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:14 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P Composite 1500 Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 28, 2004 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 210% more than equivalent positive returns.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 210% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0299
7.30***
αARCH0.1065
3.44***
βGARCH0.7553
37.64***
γleverage0.2235
5.11***

0.974

Persistence

26d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0299
7.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1065
3.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7553
37.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2235
5.11***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days