V-Lab
S&P Composite 1500 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
10.63%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
11.04%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
12.31%
increased by 0.94%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:14 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 28, 2004 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 210% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 210% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0299 | 7.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.1065 | 3.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7553 | 37.64*** |
| γleverage | 0.2235 | 5.11*** |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0299 | 7.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1065 | 3.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7553 | 37.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2235 | 5.11*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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