S&P Composite 1500 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
12.33%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
12.61%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
13.51%
increased by 1.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 28, 2004 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 214% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0298 | 29.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1052 | 13.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7563 | 149.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2248 | 20.55*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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