National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
12.33%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
12.89%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
14.73%
increased by 1.77%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 2, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 43% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0381 | 24.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1708 | 30.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7764 | 245.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0738 | 8.87*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
Other Asy. MEM Analyses on Equity Indices