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S&P Composite 1500 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

16.16%

increased by 3.68%

1 Week

16.21%

increased by 3.73%

1 Month

16.41%

increased by 3.93%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 03:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of S&P Composite 1500 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 31, 1994 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3307
6.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0920
37.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9881
528.99***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.4636
7.00***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

58 days