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V-Lab

MSCI Asia Pacific GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

22.87%

decreased by 1.29%

1 Week

22.81%

decreased by 1.35%

1 Month

22.58%

decreased by 1.58%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of MSCI Asia Pacific GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Mar 19, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4748
7.02***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0723
40.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9907
742.10***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.4880
6.61***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days