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MSCI Asia Pacific GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

16.26%

increased by 1.59%

1 Week

16.32%

increased by 1.65%

1 Month

16.54%

increased by 1.87%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:32 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Asia Pacific GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~73 daysv = 7.49 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4695
1.78*
αARCH0.0724
10.19***
βGARCH0.9906
186.69***
νDF7.4942
1.65*

0.991

Persistence

73d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4695
1.78*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0724
10.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9906
186.69***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.4942
1.65*

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

73 days