V-Lab
MSCI Chile GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
19.45%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
19.47%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Month
19.56%
decreased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 57 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 57 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 57-day half-lifev = 7.31 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6589 | 1.94* |
| αARCH | 0.0939 | 9.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9879 | 165.54*** |
| νDF | 7.3059 | 1.90* |
0.988
Persistence57d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6589 | 1.94* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0939 | 9.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9879 | 165.54*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.3059 | 1.90* |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
57 days
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