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MSCI Chile GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

26.74%

increased by 0.89%

1 Week

26.63%

increased by 0.78%

1 Month

26.21%

increased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Chile GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 29, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-lifev = 8.68 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.7942
2.07**
αscore0.0997
9.21***
βpersistence0.9889
194.10***
νDF8.6801
1.57

0.989

Persistence

62d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.7942
2.07**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0997
9.21***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9889
194.10***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.6801
1.57

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days