MSCI Chile GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
25.19%
decreased by 1.90%
1 Week
25.09%
decreased by 2.00%
1 Month
24.71%
decreased by 2.38%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 57 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 57 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 57-day half-lifev = 7.30 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6609 | 1.93* |
| αARCH | 0.0936 | 9.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9880 | 166.22*** |
| νDF | 7.3033 | 1.90* |
0.988
Persistence57d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6609 | 1.93* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0936 | 9.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9880 | 166.22*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.3033 | 1.90* |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
57 days
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