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MSCI Chile GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

25.19%

decreased by 1.90%

1 Week

25.09%

decreased by 2.00%

1 Month

24.71%

decreased by 2.38%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:30 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Chile GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 1, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 57 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 57 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 57-day half-lifev = 7.30 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.6609
1.93*
αARCH0.0936
9.29***
βGARCH0.9880
166.22***
νDF7.3033
1.90*

0.988

Persistence

57d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6609
1.93*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0936
9.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9880
166.22***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.3033
1.90*

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

57 days