MSCI Chile GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
26.74%
increased by 0.89%
1 Week
26.63%
increased by 0.78%
1 Month
26.21%
increased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 29, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-lifev = 8.68 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.7942 | 2.07** |
| αscore | 0.0997 | 9.21*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9889 | 194.10*** |
| νDF | 8.6801 | 1.57 |
0.989
Persistence62d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.7942 | 2.07** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0997 | 9.21*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9889 | 194.10*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.6801 | 1.57 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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