MSCI Chile GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
24.07%
increased by 7.43%
1 Week
24.03%
increased by 7.39%
1 Month
23.91%
increased by 7.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 15, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 67 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 67 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 67-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0204 | 6.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.1102 | 12.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8796 | 106.28*** |
0.990
Persistence67d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0204 | 6.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1102 | 12.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8796 | 106.28*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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