V-Lab
Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
19.22%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
19.42%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
20.20%
increased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 21, 1992 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 483 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0176 | 12.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0769 | 26.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9217 | 337.99*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
483 days
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