Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026
1 Day
16.41%
increased by 0.20%
1 Week
16.65%
increased by 0.44%
1 Month
17.58%
increased by 1.37%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 2, 2026 at 08:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 21, 1992 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 460 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~460 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0176 | 3.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.0769 | 6.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9216 | 84.47*** |
0.998
Persistence460d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0176 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0769 | 6.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9216 | 84.47*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
460 days
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