V-Lab
S&P/TSX Composite Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.52%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
10.67%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
11.19%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0111 | 22.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1028 | 39.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8860 | 341.03*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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