S&P/TSX Composite Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
13.96%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
14.01%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
14.17%
decreased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0111 | 5.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.1028 | 10.00*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8861 | 85.54*** |
0.989
Persistence62d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0111 | 5.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1028 | 10.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8861 | 85.54*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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