V-Lab
S&P/TSX Composite Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
9.86%
increased by 0.25%
1 Week
10.03%
increased by 0.42%
1 Month
10.63%
increased by 1.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0111 | 22.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1028 | 39.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8860 | 340.88*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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