S&P/TSX Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
16.33%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Week
16.14%
decreased by 1.21%
1 Month
15.69%
decreased by 1.66%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.0150 | 1.42 |
| βGARCH | 0.8262 | 60.36*** |
| γleverage | 0.1673 | 9.80*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0037 | 2.09** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0463 | 3.79*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9490 | 68.94*** |
0.925
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0150 | 1.42 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8262 | 60.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1673 | 9.80*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0037 | 2.09** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0463 | 3.79*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9490 | 68.94*** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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