V-Lab
S&P/TSX Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
13.32%
increased by 0.54%
1 Week
13.27%
increased by 0.49%
1 Month
13.07%
increased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0151 | 5.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8253 | 216.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1676 | 38.08*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0038 | 6.54*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0466 | 8.60*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9486 | 153.99*** |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices