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V-Lab

S&P/TSX Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026

1 Day

13.32%

increased by 0.54%

1 Week

13.27%

increased by 0.49%

1 Month

13.07%

increased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0151
5.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8253
216.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1676
38.08***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0038
6.54***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0466
8.60***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9486
153.99***

Persistence:

0.924

Half-life:

9 days