S&P/TSX Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
11.29%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
11.75%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
12.76%
increased by 1.17%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 09:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0150 | 4.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8250 | 216.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1678 | 38.08*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0038 | 6.52*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0469 | 8.57*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9483 | 152.65*** |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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