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S&P/TSX Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

16.33%

decreased by 1.02%

1 Week

16.14%

decreased by 1.21%

1 Month

15.69%

decreased by 1.66%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.0150
1.42
βGARCH0.8262
60.36***
γleverage0.1673
9.80***
λ₁tau intercept0.0037
2.09**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0463
3.79***
λ₃tau persistence0.9490
68.94***

0.925

Persistence

9d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0150
1.42
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8262
60.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1673
9.80***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0037
2.09**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0463
3.79***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9490
68.94***

Persistence:

0.925

Half-life:

9 days