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V-Lab

S&P/TSX Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

11.29%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Week

11.75%

increased by 0.16%

1 Month

12.76%

increased by 1.17%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 09:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0150
4.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8250
216.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1678
38.08***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0038
6.52***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0469
8.57***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9483
152.65***

Persistence:

0.924

Half-life:

9 days