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V-Lab

S&P/ASX 200 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

10.36%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

10.69%

increased by 0.26%

1 Month

11.52%

increased by 1.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/ASX 200 MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8577
255.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1586
46.51***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0093
5.33***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0714
7.79***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9163
82.06***

Persistence:

0.937

Half-life:

11 days