V-Lab
S&P/ASX 200 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
10.36%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
10.69%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
11.52%
increased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8577 | 255.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1586 | 46.51*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0093 | 5.33*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0714 | 7.79*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9163 | 82.06*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices