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V-Lab

S&P/ASX 200 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

9.91%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

10.41%

increased by 0.37%

1 Month

11.47%

increased by 1.43%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/ASX 200 MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8572
252.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1583
46.30***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0098
5.23***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0752
7.59***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9118
75.52***

Persistence:

0.936

Half-life:

11 days