S&P/ASX 200 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
9.94%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
10.35%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
11.35%
increased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 1992 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8574 | 254.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1585 | 46.40*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0096 | 5.28*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0739 | 7.68*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9134 | 77.86*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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