V-Lab
S&P/ASX 200 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
10.03%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
10.50%
increased by 0.30%
1 Month
11.76%
increased by 1.56%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 1992 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8573 | 253.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1587 | 46.41*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0095 | 5.29*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0732 | 7.70*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9142 | 78.96*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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