Skip to main content
V-Lab

Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

16.97%

increased by 1.83%

1 Week

18.52%

increased by 3.38%

1 Month

25.13%

increased by 9.99%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 09:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.01
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8000
185.61***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1603
45.52***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0893
3.26***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2336
24.48***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7421
46.86***

Persistence:

0.880

Half-life:

5 days