Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
16.97%
increased by 1.83%
1 Week
18.52%
increased by 3.38%
1 Month
25.13%
increased by 9.99%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 09:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8000 | 185.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1603 | 45.52*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0893 | 3.26*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2336 | 24.48*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7421 | 46.86*** |
Persistence:
0.880
Half-life:
5 days
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