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Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026

1 Day

24.02%

increased by 1.13%

1 Week

27.05%

increased by 4.16%

1 Month

38.48%

increased by 15.59%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/13/2024

to

10/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.0014
0.30
βGARCH0.7982
51.26***
γleverage0.1575
9.98***
λ₁tau intercept0.0973
3.31***
λ₂forecast adj.0.2325
8.57***
λ₃tau persistence0.7415
22.42***

0.878

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0014
0.30
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7982
51.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1575
9.98***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0973
3.31***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2325
8.57***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7415
22.42***

Persistence:

0.878

Half-life:

5 days