V-Lab
Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
16.70%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
18.18%
increased by 1.03%
1 Month
25.37%
increased by 8.22%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8003 | 185.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1600 | 45.50*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0895 | 3.27*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2331 | 24.38*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7426 | 46.88*** |
Persistence:
0.880
Half-life:
5 days
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