Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

18.36%

increased by 0.70%

1 Week

20.14%

increased by 2.48%

1 Month

27.25%

increased by 9.59%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8002
53.02***
γleverage0.1593
10.33***
λ₁tau intercept0.0896
3.34***
λ₂forecast adj.0.2328
8.83***
λ₃tau persistence0.7428
23.35***

0.880

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8002
53.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1593
10.33***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0896
3.34***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2328
8.83***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7428
23.35***

Persistence:

0.880

Half-life:

5 days