Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
21.95%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
22.13%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
22.86%
increased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 5635 trading days (~22.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~5635 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0081 | 0.93 |
| αARCH | 0.0773 | 0.82 |
| βGARCH | 0.9999 | 353.31*** |
| γleverage | -0.0020 | -0.03 |
1.000
Persistence5635d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0081 | 0.93 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0773 | 0.82 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9999 | 353.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0020 | -0.03 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
5635 days
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