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Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

21.95%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

22.13%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Month

22.86%

increased by 0.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 5635 trading days (~22.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~5635 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0081
0.93
αARCH0.0773
0.82
βGARCH0.9999
353.31***
γleverage-0.0020
-0.03

1.000

Persistence

5635d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0081
0.93
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0773
0.82
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9999
353.31***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0020
-0.03

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

5635 days