Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
26.16%
decreased by 1.32%
1 Week
26.34%
decreased by 1.14%
1 Month
27.04%
decreased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2005 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0168 | 16.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1443 | 24.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9902 | 1,204.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0041 | -0.88 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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