Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
17.48%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
17.75%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Month
18.78%
increased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 08:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2005 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0168 | 4.14*** |
| αARCH | 0.1455 | 6.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9899 | 295.40*** |
| γleverage | -0.0038 | -0.21 |
0.990
Persistence68d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0168 | 4.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1455 | 6.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9899 | 295.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0038 | -0.21 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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