V-Lab
AEX-Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
12.32%
increased by 1.04%
1 Week
12.55%
increased by 1.27%
1 Month
13.40%
increased by 2.12%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 04:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 291% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 291% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0075 | 1.13 |
| αARCH | 0.1603 | 9.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9776 | 242.83*** |
| γleverage | -0.0950 | -6.66*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0075 | 1.13 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1603 | 9.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9776 | 242.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0950 | -6.66*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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