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AEX-Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

9.75%

increased by 0.86%

1 Week

10.07%

increased by 1.18%

1 Month

11.19%

increased by 2.30%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AEX-Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-lifev = 8.34 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5266
1.93*
αARCH0.0914
10.03***
βGARCH0.9888
157.26***
νDF8.3408
1.67*

0.989

Persistence

62d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5266
1.93*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0914
10.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9888
157.26***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.3408
1.67*

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days