V-Lab
AEX-Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.03%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
12.25%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
13.04%
increased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5294 | 7.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0912 | 39.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9887 | 624.59*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.3259 | 6.67*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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