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V-Lab

AEX-Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

12.03%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

12.25%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Month

13.04%

increased by 0.49%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AEX-Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5294
7.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0912
39.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9887
624.59***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.3259
6.67***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days