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AEX-Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

9.81%

increased by 0.14%

1 Week

10.13%

increased by 0.46%

1 Month

11.23%

increased by 1.56%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 04:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AEX-Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-lifev = 8.33 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5242
1.93*
αARCH0.0912
10.03***
βGARCH0.9889
157.34***
νDF8.3334
1.67*

0.989

Persistence

62d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5242
1.93*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0912
10.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9889
157.34***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.3334
1.67*

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days