V-Lab
AEX-Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
9.81%
increased by 0.14%
1 Week
10.13%
increased by 0.46%
1 Month
11.23%
increased by 1.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 04:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-lifev = 8.33 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5242 | 1.93* |
| αARCH | 0.0912 | 10.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9889 | 157.34*** |
| νDF | 8.3334 | 1.67* |
0.989
Persistence62d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5242 | 1.93* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0912 | 10.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9889 | 157.34*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.3334 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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