AEX-Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
11.84%
increased by 0.21%
1 Week
12.06%
increased by 0.43%
1 Month
12.87%
increased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 05:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.52 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 61-day half-lifev = 8.52 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.5189 | 1.98** |
| αscore | 0.0915 | 10.00*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9888 | 159.76*** |
| νDF | 8.5203 | 1.63 |
0.989
Persistence61d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.5189 | 1.98** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0915 | 10.00*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9888 | 159.76*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.5203 | 1.63 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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