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AEX-Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

12.84%

increased by 0.50%

1 Week

13.02%

increased by 0.68%

1 Month

13.70%

increased by 1.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 04:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AEX-Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.36 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 61-day half-lifev = 8.36 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5227
1.94*
αARCH0.0913
10.02***
βGARCH0.9888
157.88***
νDF8.3636
1.66*

0.989

Persistence

61d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5227
1.94*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0913
10.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9888
157.88***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.3636
1.66*

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days